Trump the Unreliable Ally, as Europe Steps Up

Today’s London summit of 19 European countries and leaders, plus Canada, led by Keir Starmer, put on a good and serious show. Volodymyr Zelenskyy was treated with dignity and respect, as the brave war-time leader he is, after the ugly, bullying and seemingly entirely deliberate Trump-Vance show only two days before on Friday.

The summit’s conclusions, as summarised by Starmer, look decent enough in the face of all the constraints of the politics of the US – and of Russia – today. Starmer, at his press conference, said that the participants (bizarrely excluding the three Baltic states) all agreed on: the need to keep military aid flowing to Ukraine and to keep up economic pressure on Russia; that Ukraine must be at the table for any peace talks – and its sovereignty and security ensured; that after any peace deal there would be a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace and, if and when there is a peace deal, “European leaders will aim to deter any future invasion by Russia into Ukraine”.

For the EU, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “we urgently have to re-arm Europe” and, in a none too subtle phrase, added “ we need … in the geostrategic environment in which we live, to prepare for the worst, and therefore stepping up the defences”. European Council President, Antonio Costa, also present at the summit, emphasised the need for strong security guarantees.

On Thursday (6^th March), the EU’s leaders will meet at an emergency summit on Ukraine and defence. President Zelensky has been invited – and, it is reported, there will be efforts to agree a new military aid package for Ukraine. The EU has its pro-Russia and authoritarian elements in Hungary, in particular, and too in Slovakia. They may try to inhibit or veto EU efforts. But there are various ways round this that the EU could explore and exploit if needed.

Italy’s far right leader Giorgia Meloni called for an EU-US summit after the Trump-Vance attack on Zelensky – a rather limited reaction while other EU leaders took to social media in the wake of Friday’s events to back Zelenskyy. But she was at today’s summit and is presumably on board with the four general conclusions.

The Big Elephant

With no disrespect to elephants, there are two big elephants in the room – one being Trump and the other being Putin. At his press conference after the summit, Starmer was asked about the unreliability of the US, as brutally shown by Friday’s bullying of Zelenskyy. Starmer insisted, against all the evidence, that the US is both an important and reliable ally. Nato secretary-general, Mark Rutte, insisted that Trump is a friend of his and fully committed to NATO and to Article 5. The latter, we know, is doubtful.

But there is, we know, just one show in town, despite the various meetings, summits, the rapid meeting of President Zelenskyy with King Charles at Sandringham and more. And that is whether European leaders can get any security guarantees out of the impetuous, far right and pro-Putin, president of the US, Donald Trump. Macron’s and Starmer’s meetings with Trump this week did nothing to stop the car crash that was the Trump-Vance attack on Zelenskyy – the only good point of which was that the whole world saw what the two men attacking American democracy, and upending transatlantic relations and security, are really like.

But Starmer today indicated that he’d talked to Trump the evening before. Starmer is clearly hanging on in there, as is Rutte and others, in the hope that they will get something in the way of security guarantees. These are crucial. But so, too, is an end to US-Russia talks over Ukraine without Ukraine or any European allies present. And crucial, too, is an end to Trump essentially spouting Putin’s talking points for him.

How any of that can be achieved remains, at the very best, opaque for now. Yesterday, the Financial Times reported that a former Stasi spy and friend of Putin’s was ‘engineering’ a restart of Nord Stream 2 with US investors. We know that Putin and Trump’s ideas of how to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, what territorial compromises are needed and in what form, and how to ensure peace and security for Ukraine in future, are not the same as those of European states including, most of all, Ukraine.

And Europe?

Whether any way can be found to entice Trump towards a peace deal for Ukraine that isn’t entirely on Russia lines, it is clear that the more fundamental fracturing of the transatlantic alliance is not about to be reversed. And, while the Trump-Vance bully show brought protests in the US, the relentless attacks on American institutions and democracy are set to continue (and the mid-terms are a long way off).

And that means, whatever happens next, that European – including UK – countries have to move as fast as possible to strengthen their defences and security, disentangle from the US (as quickly as feasible – which may not be very fast at all), and – despite the EU and UK’s failures on Gaza – stand up clearly and strongly for democracy and rights.

But we are in a strange, brave new world, where some of what European leaders are saying is quite straightforward – the need to defend Ukraine, the need to increase defence spending in this increasingly unstable geopolitical context – and some of it is dissembling, not labelling or pointing at the elephant in the room but hoping and trying to point it roughly – and for as long as possible on Ukraine – in a not too damaging direction.

Whether this will work, or work enough, to get to a viable and decent Ukraine peace deal, we will see.

But, while the ‘prepare for a life without America as an ally but talk about them as if they are still an ally’ positioning of Europe moves forward, other international issues and conflicts will blow up more or anew and be destabilised by the current occupants of the White House. This weekend the Israeli government blocked all humanitarian aid going into Gaza – an outrageous step that is currently way down European leaders’ priorities. And we have already seen the Trump-Netanyahu show. So, how to keep the current Gaza ceasefire going is a simmering, vital issue.

Germany’s incoming Chancellor – Friedrich Merz – was not at today’s summit, Olaf Scholz was. But Merz has said Europe must prepare for independence. And European differences will emerge. So, it’s clear the Starmer-Rutte attempt to hold together diverging European and US positions may last only so long. We have to hope, for Ukraine’s sake, and for our wider European security, that nonetheless, their double-speak act brings some success.