The only really significant political question about the general election in Scotland is whether Labour or the SNP come first – in vote share and in number of MPs. If Keir Starmer heads up a UK government where Labour has come first in England, Wales and Scotland, he can genuinely say that Labour is a government of the whole of Britain – albeit not Northern Ireland. It will be a notable contrast to today’s Tory England, Labour Wales and SNP Scotland.
But if the SNP come first in Scotland – and this will need to be in number of MPs not just share of the vote – then, even with probably many fewer seats than their 48 MPs in 2019, the SNP will be in a position to say it continues to speak for Scotland, and that Starmer’s government does not speak for Scotland. And in terms of the independence debate – and the Holyrood election in 2026 – the political dynamics of the SNP being first or not are clearly substantial.
Certainly, the SNP is not going to get 50% of the vote but it could yet get 50% of MPs – which will feed back into the independence referendum debate. But Labour might be the one that gets over 50% of seats. Or neither of them. The polls are close but could well widen again. Labour is hovering around 33% (though a January poll gave them 36%) and the SNP, in the last few polls, are swinging between 39% and 33%. To succeed, the SNP need to start to hit 40% and see Labour stay at 33% or less.
Visions of Hope and Influence
There’s been much critical comment after First Minister, Humza Yousaf, trailed – and trialled – a top line for the election, at the SNP’s Perth gathering on Saturday, that Scotland should be “Tory-free”. With the Tories in free-fall, this is not particularly either an ambitious or a hugely salient goal. Whether none, one or two MPs, the Tories are not going to do well in Scotland, with a big chunk of their vote having already clearly shifted to Labour.
The SNP needs to take Labour on clearly and upfront, not as an afterthought while talking about the Tories. Keir Starmer is, in many ways, making it easier for the SNP. He, shockingly, dropped his £28 billion a year green climate fund and, in so doing, cut a central part of hope and vision out of Labour’s offering. Starmer is responsible for Labour’s pusillanimous failure to call for a ceasefire in Gaza for almost five months – and then hedging it around with so many conditions, it was barely a policy shift. Starmer is sticking to austerity-style, absurdly tight fiscal rules, undermining his emphasis on growth or Labour’s ability to talk convincingly about how it will rebuild the UK after 14 years of Tory government (refusing even to say the two child benefit cap will be removed). And, despite the damage of Brexit, Starmer as PM insists the UK will not re-join the EU’s single market or its customs unions, so growth and the economy are really not being put first.
Humza Yousaf did talk about Labour in his Perth speech. But it came across as a bit flimsy. He referenced Labour’s green U-turn but rather in passing: “The one Labour policy that was different and would have helped boost Scotland’s renewable potential has already been binned.” The opportunity to underline the importance of the now-scrapped £28 billion a year was missed. In his speech, Humza Yousaf went on to emphasise the importance of a just transition towards a green economy, but his main point was to obliquely criticise Labour’s plan to raise the windfall tax on oil and gas companies from 75% to 78%: “I say to the Tories and Labour, there is no justice in throwing thousands of Scottish workers on the scrapheap so you can fund nuclear power plants in England or give the wealthy a tax cut.”
There is a serious point in the mix here: Scotland should have a say over where the windfall tax receipts are spent – but it doesn’t. But the SNP back the windfall tax at 75%, though you wouldn’t know it from recent statements, and industry estimates of job impacts of the tax should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt. The real problem with the windfall tax is that it will only come in at just over £2 billion a year, contributing almost half of Labour’s now measly £4.7 billion a year planned green spend. This is where the argument needs to focus. It’s a green failure from Labour – and yes one where Scotland should have a say.
The SNP must decide if it is fully behind the rapid, deep green transition that Scotland needs or if it’s going to hedge its bets through the election campaign in an effort to win some more votes in the North East. If it does the latter, then it will not be in a position to confront Labour on this vital and urgent transition. A report last week from the Scottish Fiscal Commission underlined the additional investment and funding that is going to be vital if Scotland (and the UK) are to hit their net zero targets. Downplaying the issue in the election should not be an option – it would be a fatal cop-out.
The Challenge to Labour
Labour is adopting a strategy and policies into the general election that are distinctly small-c conservative. With no vision on repairing the damage of Brexit, a ‘follow-the-US’ foreign policy, fiscal policies that will be devastating if followed, and the dropping of a substantial, serious green policy, there is precious little hope on offer from Labour – beyond that of getting rid of the Tories.
The SNP is well positioned to challenge Labour from a more progressive, social democratic position. The door is wide open. And they already have plenty of the arguments. Apart from the current reluctance to push the climate crisis and strategy to the fore, there is plenty of detail both in the First Minister’s Perth speech, and in his speech, last Tuesday, to the London School of Economics. Humza Yousaf told his London audience: “If we accept the analysis that this is the worst economic situation since 1945 we might expect a serious, transformative policy programme in response.”
This is surely a good starting point for the challenge to Labour. Instead, of a big strategic vision, and substance to go with it, Labour is offering fiscal ‘responsibility’. And the SNP has plenty to say on green growth, the EU, progressive social policies – and progressive foreign policy. And it can link all of these to immediate, priority concerns of cost-of-living and crumbling public services, as well as to the further-off option of independence.
The SNP always faces the challenge at Westminster elections that whatever the outcome the SNP will not form the UK government. So, it can offer voice and votes for Scottish interests but rarely with much influence. And as Labour heads towards a likely landslide, Scottish voters may yet want to be part of that Labour surge.
But the gaping holes in Labour’s policy offerings, means that the SNP is in a position to be the voice, broadly-speaking, of genuine social democracy in this election (not a space the LibDems are choosing to occupy either). The question is will the SNP grasp that opportunity or fritter it away over local electoral calculations, an over-emphasis on the Tories, a loss of confidence after a difficult year, and continuing internal splits. Whenever the election finally comes, the strategic challenge to Labour needs to start now.