Scotland-UK Politics in the Election: the Greening of Scotland?
This week we saw Keir Starmer jet (literally) into Scotland to talk about Labour plans for its ‘Great British Energy’ company. Anas Sarwar said it would create 53,000 ‘green power’ jobs in Scotland.
The SNP – from John Swinney to Stephen Flynn to Kate Forbes – insisted, in response, that Labour’s ‘dangerous’ plans would lose 100,000 jobs and bring back Thatcherism, while also saying Labour’s plans were entirely unclear.
It's a debate that is, quite deliberately, creating more heat than light. What is clear is that, under Swinney, the SNP is marching rapidly to the right on green and climate issues. And the two leading contenders from the SNP’s younger generation of politicians, one of whom may well be leading the party into the 2026 elections, are happy to go along.
If the green transition is to happen and be successful, it needs to be now. So, this shift from the SNP is dubious and unwelcome indeed. But it may well continue after the general election – as both Labour and SNP gear up for the two year run up to the Holyrood election in 2026.
Where are the SNP and Labour on the Green Energy Transition?
The current SNP-Labour row is over Labour’s windfall tax plans. Labour aim to increase the current windfall tax on oil and gas companies from its current 75% to 78% and to end loopholes through cutting investment allowances (though whether these will be cut for green investments is not clear). Under Starmer, there will be no new oil and gas licenses but he has also been clear Labour will not revoke any. It’s green but not that green.
The SNP has wobbled around in the last couple of years on questions of new oil and gas fields – not wanting to alienate different parts of their voter base. When the Rosebank field was given a new license last autumn by the UK government, then First Minister Humza Yousaf called it ‘disappointing’. Does the SNP still consider it negatively? Or are they now full-on for more oil and gas as part of a perhaps curiously labelled ‘just transition’. It’s not at all clear.
The SNP has, until now, supported the 75% windfall tax but not Labour’s 78% version. But this week, questioned on SNP support for the 75% tax, Swinney gave a more negative reply: “"Well I think the windfall tax proposal - which we've supported some up until now because they were appropriate - but they've been extended, and they've been extended too far in my view." So, another shift, if vaguely expressed, from the SNP.
As for who is right on job gains or losses, or what the green energy transition needs, there’s little detail from either the SNP or Labour.
Labour is talking about £8.3 billion over five years for the Great British Energy company, funded by a little under half of the receipts from its windfall tax, which will invest in green energy. But exactly where its 53,000 jobs estimate for Scotland comes from is unclear.
GB Energy is meant to work across the UK and co-invest with the private sector and with local authorities and other groups, taking on some of the risks of green investment. Detail is certainly lacking. But it’s not as unclear as the SNP makes out (and where is the Scottish energy company promised by Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish government for 2021 – abandoned).
Digging into the job figures a little, it turns out that the 100,000 job loss figure, that the SNP keep quoting this week, comes from wealth management and investment banking company Stifel. This figure was also quoted in the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce 39th Energy and Transition report, which headlined this figure in its news release, in May, although it appears to be Stifel’s figure they are quoting. Earlier this year, trade body Offshore Energies UK estimated a loss of 43,000 jobs in a no-further-investment scenario. That’s quite a difference in numbers already.
In a report, last autumn, by Robert Gordon university’s Energy Transition Institute, a serious and detailed piece of work, the authors underlined that what happens to job depends on how effectively and fast the green energy transition happens, with no time to waste. Taking the Conservative UK government targets for wind, hydrogen and carbon capture, the report argued if the targets are met, UK employment in offshore energy could go up by 50% from 150,000 to 225,000. But if it’s mishandled, employment might go down 15% to 130,000 by 2030.
For Scotland, the Robert Gordon university report outlines scenarios of anything from a 25% increase in the Scottish-based offshore energy workforce from 79,000 to close to 100,000 in a successful transition. Or a fall of 40% to less than 50,000 by 2030 in a much less successful transition.
Just Transition or Just Votes?
There’s a need for some serious, sustained debate here. And the answers lie rather clearly in both policy detail and strategy not in throwing headlines figures around with little basis.
But detail is not so far coming from either the SNP or from Labour.
Labour is talking a lot about green energy strategy. But it cut its overall green funds from £28 billion a year to under £5 billion. So, can it walk the walk? Meanwhile, the SNP’s election line appears to be to still use the word ‘just transition’ while mainly backing the oil and gas companies.
Questions to the SNP include: do they oppose any new gas and oil licenses (as Labour does)? How would they fund the green transition – would it be from income tax not an oil and gas windfall tax? How fast should that green transition be – isn’t it going much too slowly? Do they not want Labour to spend £8.3 billion over five years or to spend more?
Questions to Labour include: how fast will GB Energy create these new jobs and where’s the detailed working? Is £1.7 billion per year in GB energy anything like enough – what would they have done with the £28 billion? What sort of stake will GB Energy have in investments (and returns)? And how fast, and how, is it going to lead the green energy transition?
What is clear is that the employment implications of the needed green transition in the rest of this decade depend on the success or otherwise of the overarching strategy, and its detailed content. You wouldn’t know that from the unedifying SNP-Labour debates on this so far.
The Oil and Gas Sector Doesn’t Like the Politicians
On top of this, ironically, if unsurprisingly, it turns out the oil and gas sector in Scotland’s north east is not keen on any of the parties. The Aberdeen and Grampian 39th transition report in May, based on a survey of its members, asked “which political party do you believe is delivering the best policies for energy transition?”. In answer to which, 77% said ‘none’, 5% said Labour, 5%, SNP and 13% Conservatives. In a more specific question on which party has the best conditions and incentives for the private sector on investment in new energy technologies, 65% think none, 26% Tory, 5% SNP and 3% Labour.
So, if Labour and the SNP are trying to cosy up to the sector, both are failing. Of course, the SNP and Labour are after votes now not approval in corporate surveys. And there are much wider stakeholders and strategic issues to take into account.
But the SNP is achieving the feat, deliberately it seems, despite Labour dropping its £28 billion pledge of looking distinctly less green and more pro-oil and gas than Labour by quite a long way. It’s a real dropping of any serious green ambition for possible short term gain in a few constituencies – and which may lose them voters elsewhere in Scotland who prioritise green issues. It’s ironically enough more an Alba electoral approach than the SNP’s one of recent years.
After the Vote
Once Labour is elected – and we see how well or badly the SNP does in Scotland – will there then be a mutual, supportive Scottish and UK government cross-party approach on the green transition? The question answers itself – it’s ‘no’. The SNP, with whatever number of MPs it has, will be looking to distinguish itself from Labour in the run up to 2026 – and the same goes for Labour.
In Wales this week, Keir Starmer was keen to talk up the ‘double win’ of having a Labour government in both the UK and Wales. That’s his goal too for 2026 in Scotland.
How the SNP and Labour approach their political debates in the next two years – on green issues, EU relations, migration, the economy and more – is going to look like one long election campaign, more than a serious attempt to work together. Looking forward to the election being over? Think again, if you live in Scotland.