The elections in Scotland, Wales and English council elections are leading to much comment on the UK’s new multi-party system as well as the shrinking of Labour and Tories. Such diversity is not new in Scotland’s Holyrood elections. But it is quite remarkable that the SNP has pulled off another victory after almost 20 years in power.
And, in terms of seats at Holyrood, there is a clear independence majority across SNP and Greens at 73 MSPs with the unionist parties of Labour, Tory, LibDems and Reform only mustering 56 between them. Labour avoided the humiliation of coming third but only by tying second with Reform on seats.
But what will change now in Scotland, if anything? The lacklustre election campaign was perhaps well summed up by one member of the public interviewed for Channel 4 News who called the SNP ‘the best of a bad bunch’. And turnout was a rather low 53%. Compared to the rest of the UK, Scotland looks rather stable compared to Wales, and Plaid Cymru’s remarkable victory, or to England with the Greens energising surge and the baleful success of Reform (albeit on about 25% average of the vote).
But Scotland could do with imbibing some of the energy from England and Wales where politics is now in major flux. And perhaps the deeply unwelcome presence of Reform MSPs at Holyrood might in its own way also energise the Scottish government and Scottish politics in opposition to their anti-migrant, pro-Brexit stance.
Most of all new hope, new ideas and new policies are needed. The SNP and Scottish government have looked very tired but it now needs to step up in our new politics across the UK and in our changing, unstable world.
Independence
We can expect talk of independence and demands for whoever is UK prime minister in the coming months to agree to a referendum.
Yet there is a real opportunity here not to go down the same performative road and to look around at both the emerging multi-party system across the UK and at the fact that nationalist parties now lead in Scotland, Wales and northern Ireland and see where that can take us in the short term as well as on a longer outlook.
And, on independence, there’s a real need to consider how to create a renewed, energised debate that fits with our deeply unstable times. That must focus on what sort of transition to independence, the real challenges it poses, and not just on the end state, and including in that what the best transition would look like not least in ensuring stability and security.
Imaginative and innovative cooperation
There is also a vital opportunity here to cooperate in imaginative ways across Scotland, Wales and northern Ireland and too with England’s Greens. What sort of voluntary union should and could the UK be? What about Europe – from rejoin to the current tentative steps towards a youth mobility deal? What ideas can usefully be copied or coordinated from tackling poverty to climate change to pressurising Westminster to take more account of the views of governments in all four nations not only England.
Keir Starmer wrote a column for the Guardian today (9th May) on uniting the UK, growth, security that sounds just like the speech he gave on the steps of Downing street almost two years ago. It’s not going to cut it if that means business as usual which it sounds like. But if the PM wants to unite the country, then he will need to take the new governments in Scotland and Wales seriously as one step.
Relations with the European Union could be an area where the two governments’ views surely should now be seriously taken into account. It’s a reasonable demand. Nor is this a time for the Scottish government to be weakening its presence in Brussels or other capitals (which the manifesto hints at). That would be folly indeed.
We are now three years or less off a general election – perhaps earlier depending on where Labour’s leadership conundrum takes it. It’s not at all clear that Andy Burnham, if he did take over at some point, would be a particular hit in Scotland even if he does rank better than other candidates in approval ratings right now. Labour threw away its general election success in Scotland. And it may not come back in a hurry.
There are serious political challenges ahead in a difficult economic and geopolitical climate. The constraints of immediate government decision-making and budgets. But the potential for dynamism, for challenge and for new thinking and collaboration lies not only with Plaid Cymru or the English & Welsh Greens, it also lies with the SNP and Greens in Scotland if they can think outside their normal boxes.
As of 14 May am Scotland, wales & even NI seem politically tranquil outwith the Westminster Starmerdrama - from my hospital bed in Eastbourne!
I stopped at new hope. Yes totally! As for new ideas and policies? That’s not the problem. The problem is the really good ideas and policies were shelved or so diluted as to be a travesty.
Scotland and its governments are masters of not kicking the can down the road but putting it in a cupboard at the back to gather dust. The good thing is cans have an incredibly long shelf life so let’s plunder the cupboard and unlock or at least open up the riches therein.