Europe in an Era of Trumpian Destruction

There is something of Sauron’s malevolent, roving eye in President Trump’s erratically shifting gaze and pronouncements as he continues to destroy alliances and kick the foundations out from under the international order. Tariffs are announced then amended. Talks are had with Hamas and threats made, then the eye turns to Iran suggesting talks. Next, the Trumpian eye focuses onto Nato allies – those that don’t pay enough may not get US support if attacked (Article 5 crashing to the ground).

And then, having cut off military aid and intelligence for Ukraine, the Trumpian eye suddenly swivels to attack Russia for its heavy assault on Ukraine in the last 24 hours (heavy assaults directly prompted by the US’s intelligence cut-off and attempted demeaning and actual undermining of President Zelenskyy). And then it swivels back again with Trump saying Putin is much easier to deal with than Ukraine and the increased attacks are “what anybody else would do.”

In this chaotic but deliberate set of shifting announcements, threats and diatribes, European countries have been moving as fast as they can. There have been flexible gatherings of some EU and non-EU leaders (including last Sunday’s summit in London), to the European Council’s emergency defence summit yesterday in Brussels (Thursday 6^th March) and, next week, to a planned meeting of defence ministers from France, the UK, Germany, Italy and Poland. Next week too, Ukrainian-US talks are due to take place in Saudi Arabia. But much may have happened before those talks even start.

Europe shifting on defence: but how fast?

At their summit yesterday, the EU’s leaders agreed to take rapid steps to build up European defence capabilities. They welcomed Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen’s, proposal to allow defence spending beyond current fiscal limits – by operating the escape clause in the EU’s stability and growth pact (potentially increasing EU nation state spending by up to €650 billion). They also supported the plan for the Commission to propose €150 billion in loans for defence spending – and urged the Commission to come up with more ideas for increased expenditure.

These plans are moving forward fast. But the EU’s leaders know that they cannot replace the range of military support they get from the US overnight. Politico reported that Estonia’s prime minister asked at yesterday’s EU summit: “Can we go it alone?”. The answer is unclear – or at best, it’s that the EU can go it alone on some parts of its defence but not all.

And, on Ukraine, the answer is difficult too. European countries have made clear in the last week, since Trump and Vance’s Oval office attack on President Zelenskyy, that they stand with Ukraine. They continue to look for ways to step in where the US is stepping back but they cannot replace the US overnight – not fully. Meanwhile, Russia has stepped up its verbal attacks on Europe.

But, due to Hungary’s Orbán with his pro-Russia stance, yesterday’s EU summit issued conclusions in an annex on Ukraine, setting out the position of the EU26 without Hungary. And no additional funding was made available for Ukraine beyond the budgets already planned for 2025.

The EU will have its regular summit in another two weeks. More strategic decisions and rapid reactions, including funding decisions, will doubtless be needed by then. Meanwhile, US steel and aluminium tariffs are set to come into force next Wednesday, with more tariffs by April. So, US trade war threats have not disappeared even as Trump sways to and fro on his planned tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods.

The UK is European but mid-Atlantic too.

The UK’s foreign secretary, David Lammy, said today he was keen to see European multilateral funding mechanisms outside the EU, as European security concerns the UK too. Meanwhile, with the UK outside the EU and so not at yesterday’s summit, Keir Starmer has also had a debrief with Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa alongside Canada, Turkey, Norway, and Iceland.

But the UK’s determination not to upset Trump by directly contradicting him or commenting on some of his threats continues. In response to Trump’s pronouncements on not defending states who don’t spend enough on defence, health minister Stephen Kinnock insisted today that “there’s no issues really around the challenge that the United States has set for us as European nations.” The reality is no-one knows if Article 5 still applies but it probably does not under Trump.

The UK’s determination to talk up the US-UK relationship, and to treat Trump as a normal, reliable ally when, clearly, he’s anything but, may or not be effective diplomacy. But it will not stop Trump’s demolition job on international institutions, attacks on allies nor alignment with Putin. And not calling things as they are – with the UK being the most hesitant on this amongst key European countries – creates a curious, rather unreal edge to the UK’s own political debate in these critical moments.

EU next steps

The EU is going to have to face up to its repeated problems with Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister. The EU’s leaders did manage to keep Hungary’s periodic partner, Slovakia, from siding with Hungary yesterday – with a mention in the EU26 conclusions of Slovakia’s issues with gas transit through Ukraine. But as the transatlantic alliance dissolves and Europe faces up to this seismically new and threatening geopolitics, it must be able to act with unanimity where necessary.

There may be flexible coalitions of the willing for some decisions, or declarations at 25 or 26 as yesterday. But heavy pressure needs to be brought to bear on Hungary. And the possibility of suspending Hungary’s membership through Article 7 must be seriously, and urgently, considered (which would require Slovakia to be kept on side somehow).

Wherever peace talks on Ukraine get to – if indeed they happen – the EU’s commitment to Ukrainian accession not only needs to be kept to but must be speeded up. Those decisions will need to be taken at unanimity.

The EU, and the UK, also need to make sure they are looking at the wider global picture. The EU’s immediate concerns are its own and Ukraine’s security. But Trump is deliberately seeding havoc globally. Canada has joined European informal summits – alongside Turkey and the UK. But it’s vital not to treat the collapse of the transatlantic alliance as of equally immediate concern to, say, India or Brazil or South Africa – they have their own geopolitical concerns and priorities. And South Africa has led the genocide case against Israel – Gaza more important for it than Ukraine.

But states such as Brazil and South Africa have their own investment too in current and stable international institutions, not least the UN. So, wider discussions are vital too on defending and/or rebuilding internationally in the face of Trump’s onslaught.

In the face of the first six weeks of Trump’s second presidency, and its accelerating, destructive impulses, Europe has reacted fast – as a group of mostly united democracies. Europe is pulling together its strategic and defence responses. More will be needed as the geopolitical plates continue to shift and fracture at speed. Whether the EU’s actions will or can be enough, the coming weeks and months will show.