Labour, the SNP, the EU and the Elections
Four months until the European Parliament elections, nine to the US elections and an unknown number of months to the UK general election. And while there is still everything to argue for and fight for – polls are only polls – there’s a widespread air of pessimism and fear in the air. Fair enough, the prospect of another Trump presidency is something to be fearful of. And the possibility that the far-right could take 30 per cent of the seats in the European Parliament elections is also not something to view too sanguinely.
But, in the UK, Labour still looks set to win with a landslide after a calamitous 14 years of the Tories. Yet Keir Starmer’s muddled, deeply flawed U-turn on his supposedly flagship £28 billion green programme has rightly attracted widespread criticism and broader questions as to what Labour is really for, or will bring to government, apart from somewhat more competence than the Tories (although perhaps the competence label, given the climate crisis, is no longer apt either). In Scotland, Labour’s ever increasing number of flip-flops should surely bring some confidence to the SNP. But no, the SNP and Labour are neck and neck in the polls, and mutterings about Humza Yousaf’s leadership are getting louder.
Some EU better news, some not
Yet there are some flickerings of good news around the place. The Finnish presidential election, won on Sunday by centre-right candidate Alexander Stubb, saw a second round close-run vote between him and Pekka Haavistoa, the green, progressive candidate (who won in most of Finland’s bigger cities) – the far-right candidate having come third in the first round. In Germany, the massive demonstrations against the AfD (Alternative for Germany) its engagement in discussions on mass deportation of foreigners, are a welcome sight. Two weeks ago, the AfD lost a local election in Thuringia to the CDU, despite having been leading in the polls earlier in January. Dynamics can change.
Meanwhile, the EU leaders’ summit on 1st February saw Viktor Orbán put in his place, as the European Council moved ahead on agreeing a four-year funding programme for Ukraine, his threatened veto evaporated amidst some tough politics from the EU 26. Not everything is rosy. It will take much stronger political campaigning and leadership to stop the far-right becoming the third biggest party in the European Parliament.
And the chaotic farmers’ protests across different member states not only bundle together a range of different concerns, including not least the cost of living challenge, but have also led to some serious backsliding on green policies from the Commission. Last week, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to cut pesticide use by 50% were to be scrapped in the face of the farmers’ protests, and the Commission will, too, delay plans to allow for a small amount of land (4%) to be left fallow to promote diversity. This is deeply unhelpful – and the opposite of leadership. And the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) grouping – to which von der Leyen belongs – is, too, proving itself increasingly obstructive on key climate proposals, and that’s not going to change before the elections as the EPP target farmers as one of their key voting groups.
Labour, the SNP and the EU
One common question, but with different answers, across these different elections and electorates, is who are the target voters and how to win them over? Do you, like Keir Starmer, aim for the marginal Tory red-wall voter and assume that those in favour of green policies, social justice, and the EU will vote for you anyway? Do you abandon climate policies in the face of the ragged forces of the EU’s far-right – and stick to a fortress Europe approach on migration – or do you actually make the case for what the EU needs in terms of its climate policies and its labour force? Mimicking the policies of the right-wing and far-right is not particularly an effective way to swing voters from those parties.
Where does this leave the SNP as the general election looms? In principle, things should be looking good. Starmer’s ever more right-wing, fiscal rectitude stance and abandonment of policies from the climate £28 billion, to the abolition of the house of lords (delayed) to the refusal to commit to abolishing the two child benefit cap all give plenty of room for the SNP to distinguish themselves from Labour, even before getting to the constitutional question. Politico recently drew up a list of what it counted as 26 Starmer flip-flops – whether all of these count or are salient, that’s quite a lot to draw on.
Instead of attacking the Tories for 14 years of economic and political mis-rule from austerity to Brexit to the ever-changing cast of prime ministers, not least Liz Truss, Labour’s leader is running scared of being called fiscally irresponsible. And, of course, given that Labour has decided to accept Brexit and not explain that it is inevitably damaging for trade and the economy, then one of the main economic attack lines they should be using is not available to them.
In contrast, the SNP is consistently positioned on opposing Brexit, on aiming for independence in the EU, and on calling for the UK to re-join the EU’s single market and customs union. And it has other pluses to point out on the EU side, not least the fact that the EU has found its enlargement mojo once again. So, while the possible timeline to a vote on independence is now looking fuzzy and further away, the openness of the EU to enlargement is looking positive and much more dynamic than two years ago.
Yet, the political mood in Scotland is deeply downbeat for a whole range of well-known reasons from Nicola Sturgeon’s departure a year ago and the ongoing Operation Branchform investigation into the SNP’s finances, to the ferries’ fiasco, some of the revelations in the UK Covid inquiry, Michael Matheson’s belated resignation and more.
That the SNP is set to lose seats at the general election is clear. But the polls, and first-past-the-post voting do not yet tell us who may come out ahead in terms of numbers of MPs. It’s clear that Labour is back in Scotland, but to what extent is all to fight for. Voters in Scotland, like elsewhere in the UK and the EU, may be most concerned about living standards, and public services. But differences between the SNP and Labour on the EU, tackling climate change, migration, and the fundamental difference on Gaza and the vital need for an immediate ceasefire, are stark. There is a strong case for the SNP to make – and on independence too, not least for younger voters.
But pessimism has its own momentum. A Labour revival does not have to mean an SNP rout. Yet, mutterings around how many seats the SNP would have to lose to lead to a leadership challenge sound a little resonant of the Tories pre-occupation with madly changing leaders. Kate Forbes appears to be on semi-permanent leadership manoeuvres. And she has a range of supporters drawn to her apparent competence and confidence, despite her being distinctly, and remarkably, right-wing on economics, climate, and social issues. If a shift towards tartan tory-ism is the answer to the SNP’s woes, perhaps the wrong question is being asked. Keir Starmer, after all, still looks competent compared to the Tories, despite the mounting flip-flops. But Labour no longer looks progressive, with the policies – and values – the UK needs, as Starmer (and his backroom boys) ditch what were Labour’s most distinctive and welcome plans.
However the SNP pitches its election campaign in the coming months, what it doesn’t need is a competent, right-wing, fiscal rectitude headline. Let Starmer own that. And across the UK, Scotland and the EU, let’s hope that our democracies are strong enough to still have robust, substantial debate on real issues, rather than targeting a tory or far right swing voter with pusillanimous abandonment of vital policies.